French elections poll: Far right holds large lead, with voters split in three blocs (2024)

France's snap elections of June 30 and July 7 are stirring up an enormous amount of interest, mixed with confusion, fear and hope. The far-right bloc, strengthened by the European elections, looks set to gather the most votes, ahead of the left-wing parties united in the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), with a weakened Macron-aligned bloc trailing in third place. With three days to go before the first round of elections, this is how the vote is roughly shaping up, according to the sixth edition of the electoral survey conducted by the Ipsos polling institute for Le Monde, the Cevipof political research center, the Fondation Jean Jaurès, the Institut Montaigne, Radio France, and France Télévisions.

This survey, which was carried out online using the quota sampling method on a large sample of 11,820 people, selected to be representative of the French electorate, promises high voter turnout. Around 61% to 65% of respondents to our survey said they plan to go to the polls on Sunday, well above the 47.5% turnout that was recorded for the previous legislative elections, two years ago. French voters appear engaged in this election, which was called by President Emmanuel Macron on June 9 following European elections in which his coalition garnered just 14.6% of the vote.

Just like on the evening of June 9, the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party has a strong lead in voting intentions in our survey, coming in at 32% (with a 1.1 point margin of error), a score roughly equivalent to that what they achieved in the European elections (31.4%). To that figure must now be added the contributions of Les Républicains (LR, right) party candidates endorsed by the RN, by virtue of the agreement reached between LR leader Eric Ciotti and the RN's Marine Le Pen. These LR candidates were credited with 4% of voting intentions, bringing the total percentage of voting intentions for Le Pen's party and its alliance to 36% (margin of error: 1.1 points). Never has the far right, which garnered 18.7% of the vote in the first round of the legislative elections held two years ago, polled so high.

'Support for the values and ideas'

In light of this, Macron's political bombshell is looking like a springboard to boost the far right. In three weeks, "the major dynamics are not going to be reversed," noted Brice Teinturier, deputy director of Ipsos in France, citing "an incredibly powerful RN bloc." The left, embodied by the Nouveau Front Populaire alliance, composed of the Socialists, La France Insoumise (LFI), the Greens and the Communists, came in second place in our poll, with 29% of voting intentions (margin of error: 1 point). In third place, the president's coalition Ensemble, formed by the Renaissance, MoDem and Horizons parties, was almost 10 points behind the left, at 19.5% of voting intentions (margin of error: 0.9 poinst). The right-wing LR candidates not allied with the RN and other right-wing independents together garnered 8% of voting intentions (margin of error: 0.6 points).

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